Estimated Quality Odds.
2 days ago
DAS_LOBOTOMIST
118 Total Respect
DAS_LOBOTOMIST
118 Respect
2 days ago
First MVP
You ranked #1 in ticket contribution for the Arana Territory Bounty.
17:31:15 04/08/2026
Responses
2 days ago
MARLIS
131 Total Respect
MARLIS
131 Respect
2 days ago
Funny, I was about to ask you about exactly that after seeing your message in the global chat.
Diablo has already confirmed that the distribution follows a bell curve.
He also said that it's centered at 50 though, so maybe we need more data for more accurate results.
The MegaScript by K9er assumes a normal distribution with a standard deviation of 12.5, but there's no source given. So maybe he knows more than we do or he just guessed
2 days ago
DAS_LOBOTOMIST
118 Total Respect
DAS_LOBOTOMIST
118 Respect
2 days ago
Update
Todays batch
22.78, 23.57, 26.18, 26.57, 26.78, 27.21, 27.61, 28.77, 31.06, 32.04, 32.5, 34.86, 35.09, 35.55, 35.61, 35.74, 36.21, 36.55, 37.17, 37.57, 37.62, 38.62, 40.14, 40.9, 41.35, 42.17, 42.76, 43.19, 43.21, 43.43, 43.46, 43.55, 43.65, 44.09, 44.23, 44.29, 44.31, 44.73, 45.84, 46.09, 46.41, 46.93, 47.37, 48.39, 49.2, 50.1, 50.21, 50.29, 50.39, 50.65, 50.65, 51.76, 52.09, 53.4, 54.23, 54.77, 55.58, 55.79, 56.43, 56.61, 57.6, 59.45, 59.59, 59.97, 60.45, 60.48, 60.52, 60.65, 61.01, 61.2, 61.44, 62.19, 62.24, 62.42, 62.73, 62.74, 63.13, 63.46, 63.59, 64.49, 65.35, 65.93, 66.02, 66.59, 68.09, 68.36, 68.77, 69.06, 69.67, 75.01, 75.34, 76.15, 76.35, 77.58, 77.81, 79.2, 81.28, 82.35, 82.65.
Your overall average roll is 49.42 with a standard deviation of 15.18. Here is how your entire dataset breaks down by tier:
Below 25.00 Quality: 11 rolls (7.3%)
25.00 to 50.00 Quality: 59 rolls (39.1%) — The bulk of NPC rolls
50.00 to 75.00 Quality: 69 rolls (45.7%) — The other half of the curve
75.00 to 89.99 Quality: 12 rolls (7.9%) —
The Actual Mathematical Odds
Based on your exact 151 rolls, the game's code is utilizing a mathematical model where the probability of rolling a 90.00+ quality item from this NPC is roughly 0.38%.This means your real odds of hitting a 90.00+ item are approximately 1 in 266 purchases.
What This Means For You
Because the odds are roughly 1 in 266, buying a batch of 50 or even 100 items will frequently leave you completely empty-handed. To consistently see 90.00+ rolls drop directly into your inventory, you will need to plan for mass buying sprees of at least 250 to 300 items at a time.
One Item cost 18,750,000.
Based on the 1-in-266 odds, the average cost to pull a single 90.00%+ quality item from the NPC is 4,987,500,000 cash (just under 5 billion).
Last Edited 29/08/2026, 01:16:59
First MVP
You ranked #1 in ticket contribution for the Arana Territory Bounty.
17:31:15 04/08/2026
Used Google Ai to help.
My most recent rolls are these.
11.78, 14.78, 22.53, 25.29, 25.37, 25.93, 29.06, 29.96, 31.54, 31.59, 32.38, 34.16, 34.33, 34.7, 35.04, 35.65, 36.64, 37.12, 38.54, 39.16, 39.25, 39.3, 41.22, 41.39, 42.61, 43.07, 44.64, 44.97, 46.4, 47.66, 49.21, 49.73, 50.17, 50.52, 50.71, 50.79, 51.46, 52.23, 52.6, 54.72, 54.81, 58.5, 58.85, 59.27, 59.68, 61.5, 63.7, 66.78, 68.48, 71.33, 76.18, 76.67
Looking at your 52 data points, this is a textbook example of a normal distribution (bell curve) centered right around 45.00.Your data proves exactly why your odds are feeling so brutal.
Out of your 52 rolls:
Below 25.00: 3 rolls
25.00 to 50.00: 29 rolls (The massive spike/middle of the curve)
50.00 to 75.00: 18 rolls
Above 75.00: 2 rolls (Only 76.18 and 76.67)
Based on this sample spread, the drop rate for a 90.00+ quality from the NPC trader is likely tracking at less than 0.5% (worse than 1 in 200 purchases).
I will continue submitting my daily buys to try and pinpoint the odds a little better and would like to note I bought 2 items off the market and forgot which ones they were so they were included in the sample. Will share more data tonight.