After many months of doing Arson jobs, I finally reached the (previously) maximum progress of P10 100%.

tl;dr: 8,804 attempts, 8,459 successes (96.19%), ~172mil cash, ~614k rep and 244 personal favours made.

Overview:

1. Questions to Answer
2. A Broad Overview of Each Prestige
3. Money Gain Per Job for Each Prestige
4. Money Distribution for Each Prestige
5. Reputation Distribution Overall
6. Personal Favour Gain
7. Success Chances for Each Prestige
8. Time Spent on Arson
9. Answering the Questions

This is the longest time I've spent on a single thing in this game so far. So I wanted to take the time to check out some interesting statistics and answer a few questions.

First, the questions:

1. What deviation / distribution does the profit and the rep earned have?
2. Does the reward prestige affect the amount of personal favours earned?
3. Does the prestige level impact the overall success chance?

Stat Overview

Now let's start with some basics. How many jobs did I complete and how much did I earn?

(Note: The rep amount for P10 is actually higher, but I removed all the rep from after the chaining update).

Money Per Job

Now, I'll get into more detail on specific stats. The money earned isn't a lot, but its distribution can tell us more about how the game works. I'll treat the first 5 prestiges as a single prestige as the time reduction doesn't impact the amount of money earned. The first table shows the average money earned per job for every reward prestige, and how much we should expect if the P0 average is accurate.

The money distribution is a bit more interesting. Looking the histogram of the P0 distribution for example (see above), we can see something like a rectengular distribution, with the outer values having large drop-offs in frequency. The drop-offs can be explained by the binning size (meaning the outer bins include an area with no values). Looking at the numbers, the spread seems to be roughly 3,000 or 20% (10% in each direction) off the average. Here are the exact numbers for P0:

• Sample size: 3,539
• Median: 15,159
• Range: 3,106
• Minimum: 13,428
• Maximum: 16,534

Money Distribution

This pattern continues. Here's a table of all other prestiges with their statistics:

Reputation Distribution

Now, let's look at the reputation and see if we can see the same pattern. Until very recently, reputation gain wasn't affected by prestiges. Therefore, this analysis will be quite a bit easier. Here are the results:

• Sample size: 7,994
• Median: 76
• Range: 14
• Minimum: 69
• Maximum: 83
• Range / Median: 18.42%

So it seems the 20% rule applies here too. Who knows where else it also applies?

Personal Favours

Now, to the personal favours. Because my sample size of receiving a personal favour is so low, I can't say definitively that the reward prestige has no effect on the personal favour chance, but it seems very much random from the data. Here are the average number of jobs for one personal favor for each reward prestige:

• P0: 60
• P1: 29
• P2: 38
• P3: 20
• P4: 23
• P5: 29
• Overall average (over all jobs): 35

Success Chances

Next, I'll get into the successes and fails. Here is the raw data for each prestige:

Interestingly, the success chance seems to steadily increase with each prestige. This can be explained with the additional bonuses to the success chance from the cartel, achivements, intelligence and the hidden global bonus. Until P5, the time spent on each prestige also stays roughly the same, only increasing significantly after all time prestiges have been applied.

Time Spent

Next, I wanna see how much time I spent on the job in total.

For the amount of days spent, I'll simply add up the days on which I completed at least one arson job. Below is a graph showing the days I've done arson on. The first gap started when I switched to intimidation and farm robbery. After that, I first alternated between arson and agave. But then I fully focussed on agave (second gap) and came back to arson after that.

The total amount of days spent on arson is 327, which is more than half of this account's lifetime.

The amount of jobs I did each day varies between 1 and 47. The median is 27 and the mean is 26.92. The standard deviation is 10.96. Here's the corresponding boxplot:

Answering the Questions

Finally, I wanna answer the questions I asked in the beginning.

1. The job profits and rep earnings both follow a rectengular distribution, with a deviance of 20% (+- 10% from the average).
2. There is not enough data to conclusively give an answer, but the given data suggests that prestiges don't affect the personal favour chance.
3. This time, there are too many other factors (like cartel bonuses, achievement bonuses, intelligence, hidden global job bonus) to give a conclusive answer. But in the data, the success chance actually increases with higher prestiges.

With that all said, my next goal is to reach 5,000 coca paste completions. Before the update, I would now have fully completed Intimidation, Farm Robbery, Agave Robbery and Arson. So I'll stick to my original plan to move to paste robbery now.

This will also mean I need to restart the job less often and I have more spare med cooldown. With this extra med cooldown, I'll start selling med-outs. I'll make a separate post for that and link it here once it's finished.

Holy Data!! thank you for the detailed overview

Where did you get that jobs get 15% harder after prestiging?
I believe I saw Diablo or someone else say that the jobs only got harder after prestiging, by simply the skill being reset to 0%.

Amazing overview and data collection though

Where did you get that jobs get 15% harder after prestiging?
I believe I saw Diablo or someone else say that the jobs only got harder after prestiging, by simply the skill being reset to 0%.

Amazing overview and data collection though

SHREDDERCHU - 22/06/2026, 13:11:05

Actually, I misremembered. They don't get harder, they just take longer to progress. See https://discord.com/channels/1011563751884988467/1168549309638258758/1168907955257737308. They essentially just get harder in the sense that you're stuck in higher risk ranges for longer, but since you'll also take longer in the lower-risk ranges, this should level out.

Hacking next?